Greater Bay Area hotel market advancing, driven by Shenzhen and Guangzhou

Shanghai, 26 November 2025 — The premium hotel market in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) delivered a solid performance in the third quarter of the year, according to JLL (NYSE: JLL). The recovery of business travel, rising spending on culture and inbound leisure activities have driven positive yet divergent trends across the various GBA cities. Shenzhen continues its steady expansion, fuelled by both leisure and business demands; Guangzhou on the other hand, is currently facing short term headwinds. However, it is expected to stage a strong rebound in Q4, driven mainly by a whole series of major events happening in town.

In Q3 2025, Shenzhen’s upscale and above hotel market demonstrated strong resilience. As of Q3 2025, Shenzhen has added 1,507 new upscale and above hotel rooms, with another 226 rooms scheduled to enter the market in the last quarter. Average daily rate (ADR) for premium hotels dipped slightly by 0.8% year-on-year to RMB 1,040, but occupancy rose by 6.7%, driving revenue per available room (RevPAR) up by 5.8%, ahead of China’s major cities.

The city leveraged its dynamic tech sector, expanded visa-free policies, and improved Shenzhen-Hong Kong transport links to attract more international guests, offsetting declines in domestic business travel. Business demand was further boosted by Chinese companies’ overseas expansion and trade-related exhibitions from local tech firms. Meanwhile, newly opened commercial (e.g., Joy City, K11, Phase II of MixC Shenzhen Bay) and cultural destinations (e.g., Shenzhen Book City and Shenzhen Bay Cultural Plaza), as well as high-quality hotels like The St. Regis Shenzhen Bao’an, have drawn significant local staycation crowds and Hong Kong visitors, steadily increasing the share of leisure transient guests.

Looking ahead to 2026, accelerated development in the Qianhai area, Shenzhen Super Headquarters Base, and Dapeng will trigger a surge in new supply, making timing a critical factor for investors.

Guangzhou’s hotel market slightly underperformed in Q3 due to multiple headwinds: Typhoon Ragasa in September causing widespread hotel reservation cancellations, consolidation of the Mid-Autumn Festival with National Day holiday, which weakened September demand. Consequently, the ADR of upscale and above hotels saw a decline of 4.3% year-on-year to RMB 886, despite occupancy growing by 5.3%, leading to a modest 0.7% increase in RevPAR. Most hotels adopted an occupancy driven strategy to stabilize performance.

Contrary to the relatively disappointing performance in Q3, Q4 brings a strong pipeline of demand drivers: the Autumn Canton Fair, the 15th National Games, the National Paralympic Games, Guangzhou Auto Show, Guangzhou Marathon, and year-end corporate events. The upcoming opening of Banyan Tree Guangzhou Jiulong Bay will be an addition to the upscale supply of the Huangpu District. Hotels widely expect Q4 performance to reach its annual peak, with industry consensus forecasting 3%–5% RevPAR growth in 2026.

On the investment side, premium assets in prime locations of Guangzhou which have demonstrated outstanding performance and healthy cash flow, offer better returns than office buildings and remain scarce and highly attractive. Although Guangzhou’s surrounding area are still in the development phase, with a gradual increase in future hotel supply expected, current market transaction activities are relatively limited.

With GBA emerging as an important growth engine for the hospitality industry, JLL recently opened its Hotels & Hospitality Group Shenzhen office to capture the region’s growing business opportunities and demand for professional services. Leveraging global resources and local insights, the team will provide clients with full-cycle solutions – from advisory services and comprehensive asset management to asset allocations and transactions – empowering them to seize the best development opportunities.

Tao Zhou, Managing Director, Head of Hotels & Hospitality Group, JLL Greater China, said: “The commercial vitality of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, growing events and games, and the area’s strong consumer base will continue to inject momentum into the hotel market. In addition, investors should prioritize asset repositioning opportunities and act decisively to secure quality assets before the next wave of new supply hits the market. With our presence in GBA, we will stay even closer to the local market, providing clients with more forward-looking and practical solutions.”