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News Release

China

Steady UK house price growth of 5% predicted in 2016

As confidence returns to the market


​SHANGHAI, 26th February 2016 – We are expecting a period of sustained growth and stability in the UK housing market in 2016 as activity levels respond to supporting factors such as real wage growth and record low mortgage rates. Sound fundamentals are driving a confidence in the market not seen since 2007 and whilst Government initiatives aimed at boosting supply are all very evident, the push for homeownership may exacerbate a housing divide between those who can afford to buy a home through Help or Buy or Starter Homes and those who can’t.

Commenting on JLL’s national house price forecasts Adam Challis, Head of UK Residential Research at JLL says: “Whilst the overall market will move steadily forward, there will be regional variations that will see London and the South East as the strongest performing markets for price growth. In contrast Prime London will demonstrate the weakest price growth of any submarket as the effects of a rise in Stamp Duty continue to dominate.” 

The table below details our forecasts for house price growth and rental growth, together with activity and development in terms of housing transactions and completions from 2016 - 2020.

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Looking at the rental market, Adam Challis continues: “Demand for rental accommodation has accelerated quickly over the past decade and there is little to suggest this trend will run out of steam anytime soon. With supply constraints possible in the medium-term, we believe there will be additional upward pressures on rents over the next five years. Significantly, the number of rented households has escalated from just 2.3m, or 11% of all households, ten years ago to 4.4m, or 19.4% of all households today.”

Current trends also suggest that the number and proportion of private renters are set to rise further in the medium-term, driven largely by housing unaffordability and onerous deposits. Government initiatives such as 20% discounted starter homes offer some hope for would-be young homebuyers, but this is unlikely to reverse, or even notably alter the strong upward march of the private rented sector, which is already the most active part of the domestic housing market. 

The final word: 2016 should provide a sounder base for British businesses, consumers, home owners, home buyers, renters and landlords following 2015, which was disrupted by the general election. We expect UK house price growth of 5% in 2016 with transaction volumes rising to 1.28m. 

Looking further ahead, despite the EU referendum and the likelihood of further interest rate rises, 2017 should be another year of positive economic expansion and improved household finances and confidence. This backdrop should lead to greater UK housing market activity, reasonably strong house price growth and a continuation of development volume growth in 2017.

Overseas economies and unrest pose some risk but fundamentally the UK economy is in a stronger and more stable place than almost anywhere else in the world. Higher value London markets, which are being rocked by punitive levels of stamp duty, face an uneasy and vulnerable short-term outlook, but most regional mainstream housing markets are looking in good health. Positive economics and more secure household confidence and finances, alongside insufficient new housing delivery will place upward pressure on prices and will lead to more transactions.

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About JLL

JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. A Fortune 500 company with annual fee revenue of $5.2 billion and gross revenue of $6.0 billion, JLL has more than 230 corporate offices, operates in more than 80 countries and has a global workforce of more than 60,000. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services for a property portfolio of 4.0 billion square feet, or 372 million square meters, and completed $138 billion in sales, acquisitions and finance transactions in 2015. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $56.4 billion of real estate assets under management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit   www.jll.com

JLL has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacific, with over 32,000 employees operating in 83 offices in 16 countries across the region. The firm was named ‘Best International Property Consultancy’ and ‘Best Property Consultancy Asia Pacific’ at the International Property Awards Final 2015 as well as number one real estate advisor in Asia at the 2015 Euromoney Real Estate Awards. www.jll.com/asiapacific  

In Greater China, the firm was named ‘Best Property Consultancy in China’ at the International Property Awards Asia Pacific 2015, and has more than 2,200 professionals and 14,000 on-site staff providing quality real estate advice and services in over 80 cities across the country.  www.joneslanglasalle.com.cn​​